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Currencies
Euro–US dollar exchange rate
73warm
2.4% above its 10-year average | Data for Sep 2026
Hot and cold describe position, not good or bad: warm does not mean a fall is coming, and an extreme reading does not mean a quick reversal. We describe history only, with no buy or sell advice.
What it is
EUR/USD: what is measured, and why it matters
What it measures
The number of US dollars per euro. A higher number means a stronger euro.
Why it matters
It reflects the interest-rate gap and the relative strength of the economies in Europe and the US, and affects the profits of European exporters.
US dollars per euro; higher = stronger euro.
Where it stands now
Position over time
Data: European Central Bank (ECB), euro foreign exchange reference rates. Positions: our calculation.
coldcoolneutralwarmhotHatched = earlier periods that were also warm
Short sample: positions start only in 2018 (less than 30 years), so conclusions should be more cautious.
When it was here before
Earlier warm periods (1), plus the current one
EUR/USD after it began, cumulative1 yr2 yr3 yr
Dec 2020–Jun 20217-month period, warm in 5 of those months1 yr−7.1%2 yr−13.0%3 yr−10.4%
Sep 2024–now25-month period, warm in 10 of those monthsStill under way
For each period, the changes 1, 2 and 3 years after it began are cumulative and measured from its first month; “What happened next” is measured from every warm month, so the two give different numbers. The events named beside each period are major events of that time, not necessarily related to the readings here.
What happened nextSample too small to draw conclusions (past warm months: 5; market episodes: 1).
Has hot or cold lined up with later returns?
Not enough data to judge yet
Fewer than 60 months have 5 years of later data, so we cannot yet judge whether this measure is useful for it.
When European rates rise relative to US rates, money flows into the euro
This issue: German 10-yr yield at 100 (hot), EUR/USD at 73 (warm) — both above normal, in line with the common explanation.
●●○Weak or inconsistentAgreement +0.35 · in step in 0 of 3 5-year periods
Over the whole history the direction matches the common explanation but is weak, and in most periods the direction did not match, so the link counts as unstable.
A stronger euro erodes exporters’ price competitiveness and profits, which weighs on export stocks; but the broad market is driven by other factors too
This issue: EUR/USD at 73 (warm), Euro-area stocks at 83 (hot) — both above normal, not in line with the common explanation (this is an inverse link).
○○○Our data show the oppositeAgreement −0.74 · in step in 0 of 3 5-year periods
Values
Values over time
Unit: US dollars per euro. Data: European Central Bank (ECB), euro foreign exchange reference rates.
Data and sources
Where the data come from and how they are calculated
Source
European Central Bank (ECB), euro foreign exchange reference rates
Frequency
Monthly
Positions start
Nov 2018 (short sample)
Method
Ratio: this month ÷ the 10-year average; position = the percentile of this ratio within its own history