Global Pendulum
English

Issue 1 · Late October 2026

All indicators

The first edition has 59 indicators in 14 categories; 17 of them are global anchors, followed in every issue. Each indicator is compared only with its own past.

Central Banks and Money4 indicators · read separatelyInterest Rates and the Yield Curve6 indicators · read separately · 4 at an extremeCredit and Financial Stress5 indicators · median 36 · 1 at an extremeCurrencies5 indicators · read separately · 1 at an extremeEconomy and Confidence6 indicators · median 61 · 1 at an extremeEmployment3 indicators · read separatelyPrices2 indicators · median 50Trade and Shipping3 indicators · read separately · 2 at an extremeEnergy2 indicators · median 66Commodities and Agriculture3 indicators · median 73 · 1 at an extremePrecious Metals2 indicators · median 88 · 1 at an extremeStock Markets11 indicators · median 83 · 3 at an extremeValuation and Leverage4 indicators · median 95 · 3 at an extremeReal Estate3 indicators · median 40

By category

Where each of the 59 indicators stands

Central Banks and MoneyCentral bank interest rates and balance sheets: where money comes from.

Interest Rates and the Yield CurveUS, German and Japanese government bond yields, the real interest rate, inflation expectations and the yield curve.

Credit and Financial StressHow much extra companies pay to borrow, how tight bank lending is, and how tense markets are. A high (hot) reading here means tense markets and harder borrowing; a low (cold) reading means calm markets with little fear of default.

CurrenciesThe US dollar, the yen, the euro, the renminbi and the Taiwan dollar.

Economy and ConfidenceLeading indicators, economic growth by economy, industrial production, business and consumer confidence, and Taiwan’s business cycle signal.

EmploymentUS payrolls, unemployment and wages.

PricesInflation by economy and US core inflation.

Trade and ShippingWorld trade volume, Taiwan’s export orders and global supply chain pressure.

EnergyOil and natural gas.

Commodities and AgricultureCopper, food and the World Bank’s overall commodity index.

Precious MetalsGold and silver.

Stock MarketsStock markets in the US, China, Japan, the euro area, India, Germany, the UK, Taiwan and South Korea, plus world and emerging-market composites.

Valuation and LeverageUS valuation (Shiller CAPE), the US and Taiwan Buffett indicators, and US broker margin loans.

Real EstateHouse prices, 8 economies: inflation-adjusted house prices in the US, the euro area, the UK, Japan, China, Korea, Australia and Canada (BIS), whose main reading is the median of these 8; US house prices: the US Federal Housing Finance Agency’s house price index; Taiwan house prices: the Ministry of the Interior’s housing price index (which begins only in 2012 and is compared with its average since 2012).