Where it stands now
The 17 global anchors combined: where they stand in history now
We take the median of the 17 global anchors’ positions each month, all the way back to 1978. Each month is compared only with earlier months, never with later ones (values are today’s published versions, including later revisions). Hatched areas are earlier periods that were also warm; thin vertical lines mark major events.
coldcoolneutralwarmhotHatched = earlier periods that were also warm
Where it stands now72, warm
The reading has been warm in 55 of the 69 months since Feb 2021, the rest neutral. Of the 17 global anchors: 12 above normal (60 or higher), 2 below normal (under 40), 5 at a historical extreme.
What it meansHow to read the median
The median is the middle value: half the anchors are hotter and half are colder. It looks only at whether each indicator is above or below its own normal, not at whether that “high” is good or bad. For example, when the credit spread is at the low end of its history (markets are not afraid of risk), it pulls the overall reading toward the cold side. That is why you should also look at each force and each link below.
Anchors at a historical extreme now: 5. Past months with at least 5 at an extreme at the same time: 165. In the year after them, the median change in US stocks was +13.0% (all months: +12.4%); over three years, +34.3% (all months: +34.7%). What matters is which ones they are, and which combinations appear together.
When it was here before
Earlier warm periods (6), plus the current one
US stocks after it began, cumulative1 yr2 yr3 yr
- Sep 1979–Aug 198124-month period, warm in 20 of those months · 1980 Oil crisis1 yr+16.5%2 yr+8.9%3 yr+12.7%
- Jun 1987–Oct 19875-month period, warm throughout · 1987 Black Monday1 yr−10.2%2 yr+7.4%3 yr+19.6%
- Nov 1999–May 200119-month period, warm in 12 of those months · 2000 Dot-com bubble1 yr−0.9%2 yr−18.8%3 yr−34.6%
- Jan 2006–Sep 200833-month period, warm in 28 of those months · 2008 Financial crisis1 yr+11.4%2 yr+7.8%3 yr−32.3%
- Dec 2009–Jan 201226-month period, warm in 18 of those months · 2011 Euro debt crisis1 yr+11.8%2 yr+12.0%3 yr+28.1%
- Nov 2017–Mar 20185-month period, warm throughout · 2018 February stock sell-off1 yr+5.0%2 yr+19.7%3 yr+36.8%
- Feb 2021–now69-month period, warm in 55 of those months · 2022 Inflation shockStill under way
For each period, the changes 1, 2 and 3 years after it began are cumulative and measured from its first month; “What happened next” is measured from every warm month, so the two give different numbers. The events named beside each period are major events of that time, not necessarily related to the readings here.
What happened next
How US stocks moved after earlier months with the overall reading warm
Bars: median cumulative changeEarlier months with the overall reading warm, excluding the current period (88)All months (576)
Median of the deepest drop below the starting month within the next 5 years: −19.7% for months with the overall reading warm; −3.7% for all months.
The warm months come from a small number of market episodes (6), and neighboring months are not independent events; rises and falls are all listed. This is the historical record, not a forecast. “US stocks” means the S&P 500 price index compiled by Professor Shiller (monthly average, excluding dividends).
Where Overall went next
| Median position | Back to neutral (40–60) | Still warm or more extreme | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 yr later | 53neutral | 39% | 38% |
| 3 yr later | 43neutral | 42% | 17% |
| 5 yr later | 45neutral | 52% | 16% |
Has hot or cold lined up with later returns?
Some link in the past (not a guide to the future)
1978–2021: average yearly change in US stocks over the next 5 years
In this period, the hotter the month, the lower the average over the next 5 years. The months overlap, so there are really only a few market episodes. This is a tendency, not a rule, and not a forecast.
Method
How this page is calculated
- Each month we take the median of the 17 global anchors’ positions; at least 9 anchors must have data. Because indicators are published at different times, a position can be carried forward for up to 2 months.
- The median looks only at whether each indicator is above or below its own normal, not at whether that “high” is good or bad for the economy, so it is not a score of how well the economy or markets are doing.
- For what happened next, US stocks (the S&P 500 price series compiled by Professor Shiller, excluding dividends) stand in for the market.