Global Pendulum
English

Issue 1 · Late October 2026

Network

Of the commonly cited economic explanations of how indicators are linked, the 58 that involve two indicators we cover were tested against our historical data and sorted into four groups by result. A link lights up when either indicator is at a historical extreme; 24 are lit this issue.

Overview

58 links in one network

Each dot is an indicator, coloured by where it stands this issue; bigger dots are involved in more links. Each line runs from cause to effect, in the direction of the common explanation. The thick brass lines are the 24 links lit this issue (one end at a historical extreme). Hover over an indicator (tap on a phone) to see only its links; click a line to see how that link was tested.

Dots = indicators, colored by this issue’s reading:coldcoolneutralwarmhotBigger dot = more linksFaded = not lit this issue

Lines = links (arrows follow the common explanation’s direction):Supported by the dataWeak or inconsistentNot visible in our data, or our data show the oppositeLit up this issue

Supported by the data

Supported by the data (22)

Agreement of 0.4 or more, and in step in at least 75% of 5-year periods.

Weak or inconsistent

Weak or inconsistent (20)

Over the whole history the direction matches the common explanation, but the link is weak (agreement 0.1⁠–⁠0.4) or unstable (in step in fewer than 75% of 5-year periods): it holds in some eras and not in others.

Not visible in our data

Not visible in our data (12)

The common explanation gives a reason, but over the whole history our data do not show the two positions moving together (agreement between −0.3 and 0.1). A few move in step within every 5-year period, yet their highs and lows do not line up over the whole history, so they still count as not visible.

Our data show the opposite

Our data show the opposite (4)

Over the whole history, our data move in the opposite direction to the common economic explanation (agreement below −0.3; sources are on each link’s page), though some 5-year periods may still be in step. We list these in full rather than removing them.

Compounding

Compounding and offsetting

Common economic explanations describe some pairs as reinforcing each other (compounding) or pulling against each other (offsetting). We look only at the data: a pair lights up this issue only when both indicators are at the named end; for the rest, this issue’s positions are listed. How often the same combination appeared in the past, and what followed, is listed as the data show.

Method

How links are tested