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Currencies
US dollar–Taiwan dollar exchange rate
76warm
3.9% above its 10-year average | Data for Sep 2026
Hot and cold describe position, not good or bad: warm does not mean a fall is coming, and an extreme reading does not mean a quick reversal. We describe history only, with no buy or sell advice.
What it is
USD/TWD: what is measured, and why it matters
What it measures
The number of New Taiwan dollars per US dollar. A higher number means a weaker Taiwan dollar.
Why it matters
When foreign money flows into or out of Taiwan, the Taiwan dollar and Taiwan stocks often move together.
NT dollars per US dollar; higher = weaker Taiwan dollar.
Where it stands now
Position over time
Data: Central Bank of the Republic of China (Taiwan). Positions: our calculation.
coldcoolneutralwarmhotHatched = earlier periods that were also warm
When it was here before
Earlier warm periods (7), plus the current one
USD/TWD after it began, cumulative1 yr2 yr3 yr
Aug 19811-month period, warm throughout1 yr+6.6%2 yr+7.6%3 yr+4.6%
Feb 1986–Jun 19865-month period, warm throughout1 yr−10.7%2 yr−27.0%3 yr−29.4%
Jan 1996–Aug 19968-month period, warm throughout1 yr+0.2%2 yr+23.5%3 yr+17.7%
Apr 2004–Jun 200739-month period, warm in 24 of those months1 yr−4.5%2 yr−2.1%3 yr+0.4%
Nov 2008–Apr 20096-month period, warm throughout · 2008 Financial crisis and 2009 Market bottom1 yr−2.4%2 yr−7.3%3 yr−8.7%
Dec 2014–Jan 201726-month period, warm in 21 of those months1 yr+4.9%2 yr+1.8%3 yr−4.7%
Mar 2019–Oct 20198-month period, warm throughout1 yr−2.1%2 yr−8.0%3 yr−7.8%
Sep 2022–now49-month period, warm in 25 of those months · 2022 Inflation shockStill under way
For each period, the changes 1, 2 and 3 years after it began are cumulative and measured from its first month; “What happened next” is measured from every warm month, so the two give different numbers. The events named beside each period are major events of that time, not necessarily related to the readings here.
What happened next
How USD/TWD moved after earlier months with USD/TWD warm
Bars: median cumulative changeEarlier months with USD/TWD warm, excluding the current period (73)All months (563)
1 yr later
−2.6%down in 66% of cases
+0.1%down in 49% of cases
3 yr later
−3.3%down in 74% of cases
−1.0%down in 54% of cases
5 yr later
−9.1%down in 73% of cases
+0.2%down in 49% of cases
Median of the deepest drop below the starting month within the next 5 years: −11.7% for months with USD/TWD warm; −7.9% for all months.
The warm months come from a small number of market episodes (7), and neighboring months are not independent events; rises and falls are all listed. This is the historical record, not a forecast.
Where USD/TWD went next
Later positions of USD/TWD, after past months that were warm, like now
Median position
Back to neutral (40–60)
Still warm or more extreme
1 yr later
51neutral
41%
40%
3 yr later
51neutral
42%
33%
5 yr later
30cool
21%
23%
Has hot or cold lined up with later returns?
Some link in the past (not a guide to the future)
1979–2021: average yearly change in USD/TWD over the next 5 years
Hottest 20%
−1.6%a year
All months
−0.4%a year
Coldest 20%
+0.1%a year
In this period, the hotter the month, the lower the average over the next 5 years. The months overlap, so there are really only a few market episodes. This is a tendency, not a rule, and not a forecast.
Foreign money flowing in lifts both the Taiwan dollar and Taiwan stocks
This issue: USD/TWD at 76 (warm), Taiwan stocks at 99 (hot) — both above normal, not in line with the common explanation (this is an inverse link).
●○○Not visible in our dataAgreement +0.03 · in step in 14 of 15 5-year periods
In most periods the two moved the way the common explanation says, but their highs and lows do not line up over the whole history, so overall no relationship is visible.
When the dollar strengthens, foreign money flows out of Taiwan
This issue: US dollar at 45 (neutral), USD/TWD at 76 (warm) — at least one is in the neutral range (40–60), so we make no call this issue.
●○○Not visible in our dataAgreement +0.04 · in step in 8 of 8 5-year periods
In most periods the two moved the way the common explanation says, but their highs and lows do not line up over the whole history, so overall no relationship is visible.
Values
Values over time
Unit: NT dollars per US dollar. Data: Central Bank of the Republic of China (Taiwan).
Data and sources
Where the data come from and how they are calculated
Source
Central Bank of the Republic of China (Taiwan)
Frequency
Monthly
Positions start
Nov 1979
Method
Ratio: this month ÷ the 10-year average; position = the percentile of this ratio within its own history