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68warm
19.9% above its 10-year average | Data for Sep 2026
Hot and cold describe position, not good or bad: warm does not mean a fall is coming, and an extreme reading does not mean a quick reversal. We describe history only, with no buy or sell advice.
What it is
The monthly average of China’s share price index, as compiled by the OECD.
It reflects China’s economy and policy. The data start in 1999, so the sample is relatively short.
Where it stands now
coldcoolneutralwarmhotHatched = earlier periods that were also warm
Short sample: positions start only in 2018 (less than 30 years), so conclusions should be more cautious.
When it was here before
China stocks after it began, cumulative1 yr2 yr3 yr
For each period, the changes 1, 2 and 3 years after it began are cumulative and measured from its first month; “What happened next” is measured from every warm month, so the two give different numbers. The events named beside each period are major events of that time, not necessarily related to the readings here.
What happened nextSample too small to draw conclusions (past warm months: 18; market episodes: 1).
Has hot or cold lined up with later returns?
Fewer than 60 months have 5 years of later data, so we cannot yet judge whether this measure is useful for it.
What it is linked to
USD/CNYtoChina stocksCommon explanation: Ripple · renminbi weakens, China stocks fall
Sharp swings in Chinese stocks can fuel capital outflows, and outflows put pressure on the renminbi (the source discusses 2015–16)
This issue: USD/CNY at 31 (cool), China stocks at 68 (warm) — USD/CNY below normal, China stocks above normal, in line with the common explanation (this is an inverse link).
Supported by the dataAgreement +0.78 · in step in 3 of 3 5-year periods
Values
Data and sources