Currencies
31cool
2.4% below its 10-year average | Data for Oct 2026
Hot and cold describe position, not good or bad: warm does not mean a fall is coming, and an extreme reading does not mean a quick reversal. We describe history only, with no buy or sell advice.
What it is
The number of renminbi (yuan) per US dollar. A higher number means a weaker renminbi.
The renminbi’s moves affect Asian currencies and Chinese assets. Figures from before and after the 1994 exchange-rate unification cannot be compared directly.
Renminbi per US dollar; higher = weaker renminbi. The 1994 exchange-rate unification causes a break in the series.
Where it stands now
coldcoolneutralwarmhotHatched = earlier periods that were also cool
Short sample: positions start only in 2000 (less than 30 years), so conclusions should be more cautious.
When it was here before
USD/CNY after it began, cumulative1 yr2 yr3 yr
For each period, the changes 1, 2 and 3 years after it began are cumulative and measured from its first month; “What happened next” is measured from every cool month, so the two give different numbers. The events named beside each period are major events of that time, not necessarily related to the readings here.
What happened next
Bars: median cumulative changeEarlier months with USD/CNY cool, excluding the current period (42)All months (312)
Median of the deepest drop below the starting month within the next 5 years: −1.0% for months with USD/CNY cool; −8.0% for all months.
The cool months come from a small number of market episodes (3), and neighboring months are not independent events; rises and falls are all listed. This is the historical record, not a forecast.
| Median position | Back to neutral (40–60) | Still no warmer than cool | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 yr later | 51neutral | 55% | 36% |
| 3 yr later | 56neutral | 60% | 10% |
| 5 yr later | 57neutral | 42% | 19% |
Has hot or cold lined up with later returns?
2000–2021: average yearly change in USD/CNY over the next 5 years
In this period, the hotter the month, the higher the average over the next 5 years. The months overlap, so there are really only a few market episodes. This is a tendency, not a rule, and not a forecast.
What it is linked to
USD/CNYtoChina stocksCommon explanation: Ripple · renminbi weakens, China stocks fall
Sharp swings in Chinese stocks can fuel capital outflows, and outflows put pressure on the renminbi (the source discusses 2015–16)
This issue: USD/CNY at 31 (cool), China stocks at 68 (warm) — USD/CNY below normal, China stocks above normal, in line with the common explanation (this is an inverse link).
Supported by the dataAgreement +0.78 · in step in 3 of 3 5-year periods
US dollartoUSD/CNYCommon explanation: Ripple · renminbi weakens
When the dollar strengthens, the renminbi comes under pressure
This issue: US dollar at 45 (neutral), USD/CNY at 31 (cool) — at least one is in the neutral range (40–60), so we make no call this issue.
Not visible in our dataAgreement −0.18 · in step in 5 of 8 5-year periods
In most periods the two moved the way the common explanation says, but their highs and lows do not line up over the whole history, so overall no relationship is visible.
Values
Data and sources