Leading index → Copper

Common explanation (Knock-on · same direction): Expanding manufacturing needs more copper.

This issue: Leading index at 42 (neutral), Copper at 91 (hot) — at least one is in the neutral range (40⁠–⁠60), so we make no call this issue.

Hot and cold describe position, not good or bad: warm does not mean a fall is coming, and an extreme reading does not mean a quick reversal. We describe history only, with no buy or sell advice.

Where it stands now

Where the two indicators stand this issue

Leading index: Now 100.14. Copper: 76.5% above its 10-year average.

Tests

Does this link hold up?

Common explanationExpanding manufacturing needs more copperSource: World Bank, “Global growth concerns to weigh on metal prices” (2025).
Tested against our dataAgreement between the positions of Leading index and Copper (3-month lag), measured in the direction of the common explanation: +0.44. Looking at every 5-year period (shifted one year at a time), the two moved in that direction in 40 of 42. Supported by the data
Periods when it did not holdAcross 42 5-year periods, out of step in 1980⁠–⁠1986.

History

The two lines, overlaid

Data: Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), Composite Leading Indicators; World Bank Pink Sheet (CC BY 4.0). Positions: our calculation.

Leading indexCopper

Time lag

At what lag do they match best?

Longer bar = moves more in the direction of the common explanation (the number is the agreement).

same month+0.40
3-month lag+0.44
6-month lag+0.41
9-month lag+0.34
12-month lag+0.27
18-month lag+0.14

Limits

What this card cannot tell you

Moving together does not prove that one causes the other.
Links change over time; periods when this one did not hold are listed in full.
This is the historical record, not a forecast.

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