Global anchor · Economy · Commodities and Agriculture
91hotat an extreme
76.5% above its 10-year average | Data for Sep 2026
Hot and cold describe position, not good or bad: warm does not mean a fall is coming, and an extreme reading does not mean a quick reversal. We describe history only, with no buy or sell advice.
What it is
The monthly average price, in US dollars per metric ton.
Copper goes into wiring, buildings, electric vehicles and data centers, and is often treated as a thermometer for the economy.
Where it stands now
coldcoolneutralwarmhotHatched = earlier periods that were also hot
When it was here before
Copper after it began, cumulative1 yr2 yr3 yr
For each period, the changes 1, 2 and 3 years after it began are cumulative and measured from its first month; “What happened next” is measured from every hot month, so the two give different numbers. The events named beside each period are major events of that time, not necessarily related to the readings here.
What happened next
Bars: median cumulative changeEarlier months with Copper hot, excluding the current period (127)All months (563)
Median of the deepest drop below the starting month within the next 5 years: −41.5% for months with Copper hot; −22.9% for all months.
The hot months come from a small number of market episodes (5), and neighboring months are not independent events; rises and falls are all listed. This is the historical record, not a forecast.
| Median position | Back to neutral (40–60) | Still hot or more extreme | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 yr later | 89hot | 4% | 61% |
| 3 yr later | 67warm | 24% | 36% |
| 5 yr later | 58neutral | 13% | 24% |
Has hot or cold lined up with later returns?
1979–2021: average yearly change in Copper over the next 5 years
In this period, the hotter the month, the lower the average over the next 5 years. The months overlap, so there are really only a few market episodes. This is a tendency, not a rule, and not a forecast.
What it is linked to
Leading indextoCopperCommon explanation: Knock-on · same direction
Expanding manufacturing needs more copper
This issue: Leading index at 42 (neutral), Copper at 91 (hot) — at least one is in the neutral range (40–60), so we make no call this issue.
Supported by the dataAgreement +0.44 · in step in 40 of 42 5-year periods
Industrial outputtoCopperCommon explanation: Knock-on · same direction
More production uses more metal
This issue: Industrial output at 61 (warm), Copper at 91 (hot) — both above normal, in line with the common explanation.
Weak or inconsistentAgreement +0.31 · in step in 9 of 10 5-year periods
Values
Data and sources