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Issue 1 · Late October 2026
US inflation → Net share of central banks hiking
Common explanation (Direct mechanism · same direction): When inflation rises, central banks around the world raise rates to contain prices.
This issue: US inflation at 64 (warm), Net share of central banks hiking at 82 (hot) — both above normal, in line with the common explanation.
Hot and cold describe position, not good or bad: warm does not mean a fall is coming, and an extreme reading does not mean a quick reversal. We describe history only, with no buy or sell advice.
Hover over a pendulum or tick to see its name; click to open that indicator.Tap a pendulum or tick to see its name; tap again to open that indicator.
Where it stands now
Where the two indicators stand this issue
US inflation: 64 (0.41 percentage points above its 10-year average). Net share of central banks hiking: 82 (Now 33%).
Tests
Does this link hold up?
Common explanationWhen inflation rises, central banks around the world raise rates to contain pricesSource: Bank for International Settlements, “I. Navigating the disinflation journey” (2023). The report is about the worldwide inflation surge rather than US inflation specifically, and gives no lead time; this site reuses the 0–12 months of “US inflation → Policy rates” (same report, same mechanism).
Tested against our dataBy position (each compared with its own normal — do their highs and lows move together?): agreement between US inflation and Net share of central banks hiking (6-month lag) is +0.29; across every 5-year period (shifted one year at a time), the two moved in that direction in 33 of 54.By change (how far each position moved over the past 12 months — do their swings move together?): agreement +0.09; the two moved in that direction in 25 of 53.
By position33/54
By change25/53
1967–19722020–2025
Each cell is a five-year period (shifted one year at a time): filled = in step with the common explanation, outlined = out of step.●○○Weak or inconsistent
Periods when it did not holdAcross the 5-year periods (shifted one year at a time, so they overlap), the periods out of step cover — by position (54 periods): 1968–1978, 1982–2001, 2003–2008 and 2009–2016; by change (53 periods): 1968–1980, 1983–2006 and 2009–2018.
Does it predict?Prediction test (a historical test, unrelated to “Where it stands now” above and not this site’s forecast): does adding the past 12 months of US inflation make Net share of central banks hiking easier to predict? Result: No predictive link found (p = 0.691; the smaller, the less likely by chance). Forecasting a recent stretch of data not used for estimation, the error is 7.1% higher.○○○No link found
History
The two lines, overlaid
Data: US: Bureau of Labor Statistics, via FRED (Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis); Japan: World Bank Global Economic Monitor (CC BY 4.0); others: OECD; Calculated by this site from BIS policy rates for about 40 central banks. Positions: our calculation.
US inflationNet share of central banks hiking
Limits
What this card cannot tell you
Moving together does not prove that one causes the other.
Results for every period are listed in full, including periods that did not agree.