Taiwan export orders → Taiwan cycle signal

Where it stands now

Where the two indicators stand this issue

Taiwan export orders: 52.19 percentage points above its 10-year average. Taiwan cycle signal: Now 41 points.

Tests

Does this link hold up?

1. Common explanationExport orders lead exports and production, and the business cycle signal followsSource: National Development Council (Taiwan), “景氣指標及對策信號之意義及功能?” (2024).
2. Tested against our dataAgreement between the positions of Taiwan export orders and Taiwan cycle signal (3-month lag), measured in the direction of the common explanation: +0.65. Looking at every 5-year period (shifted one year at a time), the two moved in that direction in all 17, but that does not mean they always will. ●●●Supported by the data
3. Periods when it did not holdAcross 17 5-year periods, out of step in none.

History

The two lines, overlaid

Taiwan export ordersTaiwan cycle signal

Time lag

At what lag do they match best?

Longer bar = moves more in the direction of the common explanation (the number is the agreement).

• same month+0.76
• 3-month lag+0.65
• 6-month lag+0.47
• 9-month lag+0.25
• 12-month lag−0.00
• 18-month lag−0.33

Limits

What this card cannot tell you

• Moving together does not prove that one causes the other.
• Links change over time; periods when this one did not hold are listed in full.
• This is the historical record, not a forecast.