Trade and Shipping
99hotat an extreme
52.19 percentage points above its 10-year average | Data for Jul 2026
Hot and cold describe position, not good or bad: warm does not mean a fall is coming, and an extreme reading does not mean a quick reversal. We describe history only, with no buy or sell advice.
What it is
The value of Taiwan’s export orders in US dollars, published by the Department of Statistics of the Ministry of Economic Affairs, compared with the same month a year earlier.
Orders move ahead of exports and production, and reflect global demand for electronics and technology products.
Value of export orders (in US dollars) compared with the same month a year earlier.
Where it stands now
coldcoolneutralwarmhotHatched = earlier periods that were also hot
Short sample: positions start only in 2004 (less than 30 years), so conclusions should be more cautious.
When it was here before
US stocks after it began, cumulative1 yr2 yr3 yr
For each period, the changes 1, 2 and 3 years after it began are cumulative and measured from its first month; “What happened next” is measured from every hot month, so the two give different numbers. The events named beside each period are major events of that time, not necessarily related to the readings here.
What happened next
Bars: median cumulative changeEarlier months with Taiwan export orders hot, excluding the current period (38)All months (261)
Median of the deepest drop below the starting month within the next 5 years: −10.0% for months with Taiwan export orders hot; −5.0% for all months.
The hot months come from a small number of market episodes (5), and neighboring months are not independent events; rises and falls are all listed. This is the historical record, not a forecast. “US stocks” means the S&P 500 price index compiled by Professor Shiller (monthly average, excluding dividends).
| Median position | Back to neutral (40–60) | Still hot or more extreme | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 yr later | 44neutral | 26% | 16% |
| 3 yr later | 44neutral | 32% | 11% |
| 5 yr later | 78warm | 15% | 48% |
Has hot or cold lined up with later returns?
2004–2021: average yearly change in US stocks over the next 5 years
In this period, the hotter the month, the lower the average over the next 5 years. The months overlap, so there are really only a few market episodes. This is a tendency, not a rule, and not a forecast.
What it is linked to
Taiwan export orderstoTaiwan stocksCommon explanation: Knock-on · same direction
Export orders and share prices are both leading indicators, turning before the economy does
This issue: Taiwan export orders at 99 (hot), Taiwan stocks at 99 (hot) — both above normal, in line with the common explanation.
Supported by the dataAgreement +0.59 · in step in 15 of 15 5-year periods
Taiwan export orderstoTaiwan cycle signalCommon explanation: Knock-on · same direction
Export orders lead exports and production, and the business cycle signal follows
This issue: Taiwan export orders at 99 (hot), Taiwan cycle signal at 99 (hot) — both above normal, in line with the common explanation.
Supported by the dataAgreement +0.65 · in step in 17 of 17 5-year periods
Values
Data and sources