Global anchor · Economy · Energy
72warm
62.8% above its 10-year average | Data for Sep 2026
Hot and cold describe position, not good or bad: warm does not mean a fall is coming, and an extreme reading does not mean a quick reversal. We describe history only, with no buy or sell advice.
What it is
The monthly average price of Brent crude oil, in US dollars per barrel.
Energy is part of consumer prices and a cost of transport and production; sharp rises in oil prices often push inflation up.
Where it stands now
coldcoolneutralwarmhotHatched = earlier periods that were also warm
When it was here before
Oil after it began, cumulative1 yr2 yr3 yr
For each period, the changes 1, 2 and 3 years after it began are cumulative and measured from its first month; “What happened next” is measured from every warm month, so the two give different numbers. The events named beside each period are major events of that time, not necessarily related to the readings here.
What happened next
Bars: median cumulative changeEarlier months with Oil warm, excluding the current period (118)All months (563)
Median of the deepest drop below the starting month within the next 5 years: −30.6% for months with Oil warm; −38.3% for all months.
The warm months come from a small number of market episodes (3), and neighboring months are not independent events; rises and falls are all listed. This is the historical record, not a forecast.
| Median position | Back to neutral (40–60) | Still warm or more extreme | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 yr later | 66warm | 31% | 65% |
| 3 yr later | 61warm | 19% | 53% |
| 5 yr later | 60neutral | 9% | 49% |
Has hot or cold lined up with later returns?
1979–2021: average yearly change in Oil over the next 5 years
There is no clear relationship between hot or cold and what came next. The gaps between the bars are not consistent across months (rank correlation below 0.25); this is a record of the past, not a forecast.
What it is linked to
OiltoUS inflationCommon explanation: Knock-on · same direction
Energy is part of consumer prices and a cost of transport and production
This issue: Oil at 72 (warm), US inflation at 64 (warm) — both above normal, in line with the common explanation.
Supported by the dataAgreement +0.53 · in step in 38 of 42 5-year periods
OiltoIndia stocksCommon explanation: Knock-on · opposite direction
India is a net oil importer, so rising oil prices squeeze its economy and its currency
This issue: Oil at 72 (warm), India stocks at 34 (cool) — Oil above normal, India stocks below normal, in line with the common explanation (this is an inverse link).
Weak or inconsistentAgreement +0.19 · in step in 17 of 42 5-year periods
OiltoUK stocksCommon explanation: Knock-on · same direction
Energy and materials shares weigh heavily in the UK market
This issue: Oil at 72 (warm), UK stocks at 58 (neutral) — at least one is in the neutral range (40–60), so we make no call this issue.
Our data show the oppositeAgreement −0.47 · in step in 23 of 42 5-year periods
In most periods the two moved the way the common explanation says, but over the whole history the direction is the opposite: the relationship may have flipped in some eras.
Values
Data and sources