Energy
60warm
Median position across regions | Data for Sep 2026
Hot and cold describe position, not good or bad: warm does not mean a fall is coming, and an extreme reading does not mean a quick reversal. We describe history only, with no buy or sell advice.
What it is
Monthly average prices of natural gas in the US and Europe and of liquefied natural gas in Japan. The headline reading is the median of the three positions.
Natural gas drives electricity and heating bills, and was at the center of Europe’s 2022 energy crisis.
Europe uses the TTF price from April 2015.
Where it stands now
coldcoolneutralwarmhotHatched = earlier periods that were also warm
| Regions | Percentile | Level | Data month |
|---|---|---|---|
| Europe | 80 | hot | Sep 2026 |
| Japan LNG | 60 | warm | Sep 2026 |
| US | 34 | cool | Sep 2026 |
When it was here before
US stocks after it began, cumulative1 yr2 yr3 yr
For each period, the changes 1, 2 and 3 years after it began are cumulative and measured from its first month; “What happened next” is measured from every warm month, so the two give different numbers. The events named beside each period are major events of that time, not necessarily related to the readings here.
What happened next
Bars: median cumulative changeEarlier months with Natural gas warm, excluding the current period (106)All months (563)
Median of the deepest drop below the starting month within the next 5 years: −23.6% for months with Natural gas warm; −4.0% for all months.
The warm months come from a small number of market episodes (9), and neighboring months are not independent events; rises and falls are all listed. This is the historical record, not a forecast. “US stocks” means the S&P 500 price index compiled by Professor Shiller (monthly average, excluding dividends).
| Median position | Back to neutral (40–60) | Still warm or more extreme | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 yr later | 67warm | 35% | 60% |
| 3 yr later | 61warm | 22% | 51% |
| 5 yr later | 57neutral | 25% | 42% |
Has hot or cold lined up with later returns?
1979–2021: average yearly change in US stocks over the next 5 years
In this period, the hotter the month, the lower the average over the next 5 years. The months overlap, so there are really only a few market episodes. This is a tendency, not a rule, and not a forecast.
What it is linked to
Natural gastoUS inflationCommon explanation: Knock-on · same direction
Natural gas drives electricity and heating bills (most clearly in Europe)
This issue: Natural gas at 60 (warm), US inflation at 64 (warm) — both above normal, in line with the common explanation.
Weak or inconsistentAgreement +0.39 · in step in 25 of 42 5-year periods
Natural gastoEuro-area stocksCommon explanation: Knock-on · opposite direction
Soaring energy costs squeeze European manufacturers’ profits, especially in energy-intensive industries, most visibly in 2022; but where firms can pass costs on, share prices do not necessarily fall
This issue: Natural gas at 60 (warm), Euro-area stocks at 83 (hot) — both above normal, not in line with the common explanation (this is an inverse link).
Weak or inconsistentAgreement +0.41 · in step in 10 of 16 5-year periods
Data and sources