Stock Markets
53neutral
Positions of 9 national stock markets, weighted by market value | Data for Sep 2026
Hot and cold describe position, not good or bad: warm does not mean a fall is coming, and an extreme reading does not mean a quick reversal. We describe history only, with no buy or sell advice.
What it is
The average position of emerging stock markets, weighted by market value, shown alongside developed markets (our calculation).
Money moves between developed and emerging markets. When the dollar strengthens, emerging markets often come under pressure.
Public substituteWe use this in place of “MSCI World and Emerging Markets indices”. MSCI indices are share price indices compiled by an index provider and weighted by market value; this site’s world stock reading combines each national market’s own position from cold to hot, weighted by market value, and is not a share price. They tend to point the same way, but their numbers and meaning differ. They measure similar things, but they are not the same number.
Where it stands now
coldcoolneutralwarmhotHatched = earlier periods that were also neutral
Short sample: positions start only in 2017 (less than 30 years), so conclusions should be more cautious.
| Components | Percentile | Level | Data month |
|---|---|---|---|
| Developed markets | 78 | warm | Sep 2026 |
| Economies | Market-cap share | Percentile | Level | Data month |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Poland | 1.0% | 93 | hot | Sep 2026 |
| Chile | 1.6% | 91 | hot | Aug 2026 |
| China | 49.9% | 68 | warm | Sep 2026 |
| Türkiye | 1.3% | 68 | warm | Sep 2026 |
| South Africa | 4.5% | 58 | neutral | Sep 2026 |
| Brazil | 2.8% | 44 | neutral | Sep 2026 |
| India | 34.0% | 34 | cool | Sep 2026 |
| Mexico | 1.8% | 20 | cold | Sep 2026 |
| Indonesia | 3.1% | 3 | cold | Sep 2026 |
Each country’s stock prices use the OECD share price index, compared with its own 10-year average. The US here uses the OECD’s US share price index (from 1957), which differs from Professor Shiller’s S&P 500 series (from 1871) used for the “US stocks” global anchor, so the positions differ too. Market-cap shares are based on the World Bank’s latest annual figures for total stock market capitalization.
When it was here before
US stocks after it began, cumulative1 yr2 yr3 yr
For each period, the changes 1, 2 and 3 years after it began are cumulative and measured from its first month; “What happened next” is measured from every neutral month, so the two give different numbers. The events named beside each period are major events of that time, not necessarily related to the readings here.
What happened nextSample too small to draw conclusions (past neutral months: 31; market episodes: 1).
Has hot or cold lined up with later returns?
Fewer than 60 months have 5 years of later data, so we cannot yet judge whether this measure is useful for it.
What it is linked to
US dollartoEmerging marketsCommon explanation: Ripple · opposite direction
A strong dollar makes emerging economies’ dollar debts heavier, drives money out and tightens financial conditions
This issue: US dollar at 45 (neutral), Emerging markets at 53 (neutral) — at least one is in the neutral range (40–60), so we make no call this issue.
Supported by the dataAgreement +0.56 · in step in 5 of 5 5-year periods
Data and sources