Stock Markets
34cool
38.2% above its 10-year average, but by less than it usually is | Data for Sep 2026
Hot and cold describe position, not good or bad: warm does not mean a fall is coming, and an extreme reading does not mean a quick reversal. We describe history only, with no buy or sell advice.
What it is
The monthly average of India’s share price index, as compiled by the OECD.
India is one of the fastest-growing large economies and a net oil importer, so higher oil prices hurt it in particular.
Where it stands now
coldcoolneutralwarmhotHatched = earlier periods that were also cool
When it was here before
India stocks after it began, cumulative1 yr2 yr3 yr
For each period, the changes 1, 2 and 3 years after it began are cumulative and measured from its first month; “What happened next” is measured from every cool month, so the two give different numbers. The events named beside each period are major events of that time, not necessarily related to the readings here.
What happened next
Bars: median cumulative changeEarlier months with India stocks cool, excluding the current period (50)All months (599)
Median of the deepest drop below the starting month within the next 5 years: −1.8% for months with India stocks cool; −6.7% for all months.
The cool months come from a small number of market episodes (5), and neighboring months are not independent events; rises and falls are all listed. This is the historical record, not a forecast.
| Median position | Back to neutral (40–60) | Still no warmer than cool | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 yr later | 47neutral | 54% | 32% |
| 3 yr later | 60warm | 44% | 6% |
| 5 yr later | 85hot | 14% | 0% |
Has hot or cold lined up with later returns?
1976–2021: average yearly change in India stocks over the next 5 years
There is no clear relationship between hot or cold and what came next. The gaps between the bars are not consistent across months (rank correlation below 0.25); this is a record of the past, not a forecast.
What it is linked to
OiltoIndia stocksCommon explanation: Knock-on · opposite direction
India is a net oil importer, so rising oil prices squeeze its economy and its currency
This issue: Oil at 72 (warm), India stocks at 34 (cool) — Oil above normal, India stocks below normal, in line with the common explanation (this is an inverse link).
Weak or inconsistentAgreement +0.19 · in step in 17 of 42 5-year periods
Values
Data and sources