Currencies
94hotat an extreme
24.3% above its 10-year average | Data for Oct 2026
Hot and cold describe position, not good or bad: warm does not mean a fall is coming, and an extreme reading does not mean a quick reversal. We describe history only, with no buy or sell advice.
What it is
The number of yen per US dollar. A higher number means a weaker yen.
The yen has long been a low-rate currency for borrowing. When it jumps, positions funded in yen are often forced to unwind together.
Yen per US dollar; higher = weaker yen.
Where it stands now
coldcoolneutralwarmhotHatched = earlier periods that were also hot
When it was here before
USD/JPY after it began, cumulative1 yr2 yr3 yr
For each period, the changes 1, 2 and 3 years after it began are cumulative and measured from its first month; “What happened next” is measured from every hot month, so the two give different numbers. The events named beside each period are major events of that time, not necessarily related to the readings here.
What happened next
Bars: median cumulative changeEarlier months with USD/JPY hot, excluding the current period (75)All months (432)
Median of the deepest drop below the starting month within the next 5 years: −15.6% for months with USD/JPY hot; −14.4% for all months.
The hot months come from a small number of market episodes (3), and neighboring months are not independent events; rises and falls are all listed. This is the historical record, not a forecast.
| Median position | Back to neutral (40–60) | Still hot or more extreme | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 yr later | 85hot | 9% | 55% |
| 3 yr later | 70warm | 12% | 31% |
| 5 yr later | 78warm | 9% | 41% |
Has hot or cold lined up with later returns?
1990–2021: average yearly change in USD/JPY over the next 5 years
In this period, the hotter the month, the lower the average over the next 5 years. The months overlap, so there are really only a few market episodes. This is a tendency, not a rule, and not a forecast.
What it is linked to
USD/JPYtoWorld stocksCommon explanation: Ripple · a sharp rise in the yen weighs on world stocks
Positions funded in yen are forced to unwind together, and stock markets around the world come under pressure at the same time
This issue: USD/JPY at 94 (hot), World stocks at 72 (warm) — both above normal, in line with the common explanation.
Weak or inconsistentAgreement +0.13 · in step in 18 of 31 5-year periods
USD/JPYtoJapan stocksCommon explanation: Cause · yen strengthens, Japan stocks fall
A stronger yen squeezes exporters’ profits in yen terms
This issue: USD/JPY at 94 (hot), Japan stocks at 89 (hot) — both above normal, in line with the common explanation.
Weak or inconsistentAgreement +0.59 · in step in 19 of 31 5-year periods
Japan 10-yr yieldtoUSD/JPYCommon explanation: Cause · yen strengthens
Rising Japanese rates make borrowing yen to invest costlier, so money flows back to Japan
This issue: Japan 10-yr yield at 100 (hot), USD/JPY at 94 (hot) — both above normal, not in line with the common explanation (this is an inverse link).
Not visible in our dataAgreement −0.06 · in step in 10 of 16 5-year periods
In most periods the two moved the way the common explanation says, but their highs and lows do not line up over the whole history, so overall no relationship is visible.
Values
Data and sources