Food prices | Global Pendulum

What it is

Food prices: what is measured, and why it matters

What it measures

The World Bank’s food price index, with grains and oils also shown.

Why it matters

Food prices drive food inflation and weigh most on daily life in emerging economies.

Where it stands now

Position over time

Data: World Bank Pink Sheet price indices (CC BY 4.0). Positions: our calculation.

coldcoolneutralwarmhotHatched = earlier periods that were also warm

Where the components stand

Components	Percentile	Level	Data month
Grains	65	warm	Sep 2026
Oils and meals	63	warm	Sep 2026

When it was here before

Earlier warm periods (7), plus the current one

Food prices after it began, cumulative1 yr2 yr3 yr

Nov 1979⁠–Feb 198116-month period, warm in 13 of those months · 1980 Oil crisis1 yr+27.3%2 yr−7.3%3 yr−23.8%
Jan 1994⁠–Apr 199740-month period, warm in 27 of those months1 yr+0.0%2 yr+12.5%3 yr+9.2%
Nov 2003⁠–Dec 200638-month period, warm in 23 of those months1 yr−4.5%2 yr−0.3%3 yr+16.7%
Dec 20081-month period, warm throughout · 2008 Financial crisis and 2009 Market bottom1 yr+18.7%2 yr+46.4%3 yr+38.7%
Mar 2010⁠–Jul 20105-month period, warm throughout1 yr+33.5%2 yr+32.3%3 yr+29.6%
Dec 2012⁠–Mar 201416-month period, warm in 11 of those months1 yr−11.5%2 yr−18.7%3 yr−32.4%
Jan 2021⁠–Dec 202336-month period, warm in 32 of those months · 2022 Inflation shock1 yr+11.9%2 yr+13.0%3 yr+3.0%
Sep 2026⁠–⁠now1-month period, warm throughoutStill under way

For each period, the changes 1, 2 and 3 years after it began are cumulative and measured from its first month; “What happened next” is measured from every warm month, so the two give different numbers. The events named beside each period are major events of that time, not necessarily related to the readings here.

What happened next

How Food prices moved after earlier months with Food prices warm

Bars: median cumulative changeEarlier months with Food prices warm, excluding the current period (112)All months (563)

1 yr later

−3.6%down in 55% of cases

−0.1%down in 50% of cases

3 yr later

−9.1%down in 67% of cases

+3.1%down in 46% of cases

5 yr later

−20.6%down in 71% of cases

+10.0%down in 40% of cases

Median of the deepest drop below the starting month within the next 5 years: −26.6% for months with Food prices warm; −9.1% for all months.

The warm months come from a small number of market episodes (7), and neighboring months are not independent events; rises and falls are all listed. This is the historical record, not a forecast.

Where Food prices went next

Later positions of Food prices, after past months that were warm, like now
	Median position	Back to neutral (40⁠–⁠60)	Still warm or more extreme
1 yr later	64warm	25%	57%
3 yr later	39cool	20%	29%
5 yr later	16cold	10%	27%

Has hot or cold lined up with later returns?

Some link in the past (not a guide to the future)

1979⁠–⁠2021: average yearly change in Food prices over the next 5 years

Hottest 20%

+0.3%a year

All months

+1.8%a year

Coldest 20%

+3.4%a year

In this period, the hotter the month, the lower the average over the next 5 years. The months overlap, so there are really only a few market episodes. This is a tendency, not a rule, and not a forecast.

What it is linked to

Links involving Food prices

Food pricestoUS inflationCommon explanation: Knock-on · same direction

Food prices push up food inflation (food weighs heavily in emerging economies)

This issue: Food prices at 61 (warm), US inflation at 64 (warm) — both above normal, in line with the common explanation.

Weak or inconsistentAgreement +0.32 · in step in 26 of 42 5-year periods

Values

Values over time

Unit: index (2010 = 100). Data: World Bank Pink Sheet price indices (CC BY 4.0).

Data and sources

Where the data come from and how they are calculated

Source: World Bank Pink Sheet price indices (CC BY 4.0)
Frequency: Monthly
Positions start: Nov 1979
Method: Ratio: this month ÷ the 10-year average; position = the percentile of this ratio within its own history
Unit: index (2010 = 100)
License: Open license, with attribution

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