Global Pendulum
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Issue 1 · Late October 2026

Commodities and Agriculture

Copper, food and the World Bank’s overall commodity index. Each number compares the indicator only with its own past: the share of past months it is higher than; 50 is normal. For prices and rates, what is compared is how far the reading is from its own 10-year average: 100 means the furthest from that average, not necessarily a record price or rate.

This issue

Combined, the 3 indicators in this category stand at 73 warm.

  • Copper91hotrelative to its 10-year average, higher than 90% of past months; last this high in Jul 2011

The others: Commodities 73 (warm) and Food prices 61 (warm).

Hot and cold describe position, not good or bad: warm does not mean a fall is coming, and an extreme reading does not mean a quick reversal. We describe history only, with no buy or sell advice.

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Where it stands now

Where each indicator stands

The category combined

Combined position over time

Each month we take the median of the indicators’ positions, going back to 1979. Higher = commodities cost more.

Data: sources are on each indicator’s page. Positions and the median: our calculation.

coldcoolneutralwarmhotHatched = earlier periods that were also warm

When it was here beforeEarlier warm periods (7), plus the current one

US stocks after it began, cumulative1 yr2 yr3 yr

  1. Apr 1980⁠–Apr 198113-month period, warm throughout · 1980 Oil crisis1 yr+30.5%2 yr+12.9%3 yr+53.1%
  2. Nov 1994⁠–Dec 199514-month period, warm in 12 of those months1 yr+29.2%2 yr+59.6%3 yr+103.7%
  3. Nov 2003⁠–May 200519-month period, warm in 17 of those months1 yr+11.3%2 yr+17.9%3 yr+32.3%
  4. Sep 2006⁠–Nov 20063-month period, warm throughout1 yr+13.6%2 yr−7.6%3 yr−20.7%
  5. Oct 2008⁠–Jul 201022-month period, warm in 11 of those months · 2008 Financial crisis and 2009 Market bottom1 yr+10.2%2 yr+20.9%3 yr+24.6%
  6. Oct 2011⁠–Mar 201318-month period, warm in 16 of those months · 2011 Euro debt crisis1 yr+19.1%2 yr+42.5%3 yr+60.5%
  7. Jan 2021⁠–Dec 202336-month period, warm in 32 of those months · 2022 Inflation shock1 yr+20.6%2 yr+4.4%3 yr+26.9%
  8. Mar 2026⁠–⁠now7-month period, warm in 5 of those monthsStill under way

For each period, the changes 1, 2 and 3 years after it began are cumulative and measured from its first month; “What happened next” is measured from every warm month, so the two give different numbers. The events named beside each period are major events of that time, not necessarily related to the readings here.

What happened nextHow US stocks moved after earlier months with Commodities and Agriculture warm

Bars: median cumulative changeEarlier months with Commodities and Agriculture warm, excluding the current period (104)All months (563)

1 yr later
+14.3%down in 17% of cases
+12.4%down in 21% of cases
3 yr later
+39.1%down in 3% of cases
+35.3%down in 13% of cases
5 yr later
+75.0%down in 25% of cases
+65.4%down in 17% of cases

Median of the deepest drop below the starting month within the next 5 years: −4.7% for months with Commodities and Agriculture warm; −4.0% for all months.

“US stocks” means the S&P 500 price index compiled by Professor Shiller (monthly average, excluding dividends).

Has hot or cold lined up with later returns?No clear link in the past

1979⁠–⁠2021: average yearly change in US stocks over the next 5 years

Hottest 20%
+5.1%a year
All months
+9.3%a year
Coldest 20%
+8.2%a year

There is no clear relationship between hot or cold and what came next. The gaps between the bars are not consistent across months (rank correlation below 0.25); this is a record of the past, not a forecast.

What it is linked to

Links involving Commodities and Agriculture

Leading indextoCopperCommon explanation: Knock-on · same direction

Expanding manufacturing needs more copper

This issue: Leading index at 42 (neutral), Copper at 91 (hot) — at least one is in the neutral range (40⁠–⁠60), so we make no call this issue.

Supported by the dataAgreement +0.44 · in step in 40 of 42 5-year periods

US dollartoCommoditiesCommon explanation: Cause · opposite direction

Commodities are priced in dollars, so a strong dollar raises their cost for other countries and demand falls; from 2021, though, the two moved together for a time

This issue: US dollar at 45 (neutral), Commodities at 73 (warm) — at least one is in the neutral range (40⁠–⁠60), so we make no call this issue.

Supported by the dataAgreement +0.68 · in step in 7 of 8 5-year periods

Industrial outputtoCopperCommon explanation: Knock-on · same direction

More production uses more metal

This issue: Industrial output at 61 (warm), Copper at 91 (hot) — both above normal, in line with the common explanation.

Weak or inconsistentAgreement +0.31 · in step in 9 of 10 5-year periods

Food pricestoUS inflationCommon explanation: Knock-on · same direction

Food prices push up food inflation (food weighs heavily in emerging economies)

This issue: Food prices at 61 (warm), US inflation at 64 (warm) — both above normal, in line with the common explanation.

Weak or inconsistentAgreement +0.32 · in step in 26 of 42 5-year periods

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