Taiwan export orders → Taiwan stocks

Common explanation (Knock-on · same direction): Export orders and share prices are both leading indicators, turning before the economy does.

This issue: Taiwan export orders at 99 (hot), Taiwan stocks at 99 (hot) — both above normal, in line with the common explanation.

Hot and cold describe position, not good or bad: warm does not mean a fall is coming, and an extreme reading does not mean a quick reversal. We describe history only, with no buy or sell advice.

Where it stands now

Where the two indicators stand this issue

Taiwan export orders: 52.19 percentage points above its 10-year average. Taiwan stocks: 171% above its 10-year average.

Tests

Does this link hold up?

Common explanationExport orders and share prices are both leading indicators, turning before the economy doesSource: National Development Council (Taiwan), “景氣指標簡介”. The National Development Council uses an export-orders index that counts firms, not the order value this site uses.
Tested against our dataAgreement between the positions of Taiwan export orders and Taiwan stocks (3-month lag), measured in the direction of the common explanation: +0.59. Looking at every 5-year period (shifted one year at a time), the two moved in that direction in all 15, but that does not mean they always will; data start only in 2006. Supported by the data
Periods when it did not holdAcross 15 5-year periods, out of step in none.

History

The two lines, overlaid

Data: Department of Statistics, Ministry of Economic Affairs (Open Government Data License, Taiwan); Central Bank of the Republic of China (Taiwan) (monthly average of the TAIEX, the Taiwan Stock Exchange Capitalization Weighted Stock Index). Positions: our calculation.

Taiwan export ordersTaiwan stocks

Time lag

At what lag do they match best?

Longer bar = moves more in the direction of the common explanation (the number is the agreement).

same month+0.62
3-month lag+0.59
6-month lag+0.51
9-month lag+0.38
12-month lag+0.22
18-month lag−0.03

Limits

What this card cannot tell you

Moving together does not prove that one causes the other.
Links change over time; periods when this one did not hold are listed in full.
This is the historical record, not a forecast.

Back to all links