Where it stands now
Where the two indicators stand this issue
US 10-yr yield: 2.09 percentage points above its 10-year average. German 10-yr yield: 2.43 percentage points above its 10-year average.
Tests
Does this link hold up?
- Common explanationGlobal investors compare government bonds across countries, so rising US yields pull others alongSource: Bank for International Settlements, “Interest rate spillovers from the United States: expectations, term premia and macro-financial vulnerabilities” (2019).
- Tested against our dataAgreement between the positions of US 10-yr yield and German 10-yr yield (same month), measured in the direction of the common explanation: +0.85. Looking at every 5-year period (shifted one year at a time), the two moved in that direction in all 12, but that does not mean they always will; data start only in 2009. Supported by the data
- Periods when it did not holdAcross 12 5-year periods, out of step in none.
History
The two lines, overlaid
US 10-yr yieldGerman 10-yr yield
Time lag
At what lag do they match best?
Longer bar = moves more in the direction of the common explanation (the number is the agreement).
Limits
What this card cannot tell you
- Moving together does not prove that one causes the other.
- Links change over time; periods when this one did not hold are listed in full.
- This is the historical record, not a forecast.