Stock Markets
72warm
35.5% above its 10-year average | Data for Sep 2026
Hot and cold describe position, not good or bad: warm does not mean a fall is coming, and an extreme reading does not mean a quick reversal. We describe history only, with no buy or sell advice.
What it is
The monthly average of Germany’s share price index, as compiled by the OECD.
Germany relies on exports and manufacturing, which makes it highly sensitive to the global economy.
Where it stands now
coldcoolneutralwarmhotHatched = earlier periods that were also warm
When it was here before
German stocks after it began, cumulative1 yr2 yr3 yr
For each period, the changes 1, 2 and 3 years after it began are cumulative and measured from its first month; “What happened next” is measured from every warm month, so the two give different numbers. The events named beside each period are major events of that time, not necessarily related to the readings here.
What happened next
Bars: median cumulative changeEarlier months with German stocks warm, excluding the current period (155)All months (563)
Median of the deepest drop below the starting month within the next 5 years: −13.7% for months with German stocks warm; −12.7% for all months.
The warm months come from a small number of market episodes (9), and neighboring months are not independent events; rises and falls are all listed. This is the historical record, not a forecast.
| Median position | Back to neutral (40–60) | Still warm or more extreme | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 yr later | 60warm | 32% | 50% |
| 3 yr later | 63warm | 25% | 59% |
| 5 yr later | 57neutral | 35% | 46% |
Has hot or cold lined up with later returns?
1979–2021: average yearly change in German stocks over the next 5 years
In this period, the hotter the month, the lower the average over the next 5 years. The months overlap, so there are really only a few market episodes. This is a tendency, not a rule, and not a forecast.
What it is linked to
Leading indextoGerman stocksCommon explanation: Knock-on · same direction
Germany relies on export manufacturing and is deeply embedded in global supply chains, so global demand directly affects its exports and investment
This issue: Leading index at 42 (neutral), German stocks at 72 (warm) — at least one is in the neutral range (40–60), so we make no call this issue.
Weak or inconsistentAgreement +0.24 · in step in 34 of 42 5-year periods
Values
Data and sources