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Global anchor · Assets · Stock Markets
Euro-area stock market
83hot
50.1% above its 10-year average | Data for Sep 2026
Hot and cold describe position, not good or bad: warm does not mean a fall is coming, and an extreme reading does not mean a quick reversal. We describe history only, with no buy or sell advice.
What it is
Euro-area stocks: what is measured, and why it matters
What it measures
The monthly average of the euro area’s share price index, as compiled by the OECD.
Why it matters
With heavy weights in banks, energy and industrials, it is sensitive to both the economy and interest rates.
Where it stands now
Position over time
Data: OECD Main Economic Indicators (share prices). Positions: our calculation.
coldcoolneutralwarmhotHatched = earlier periods that were also hot
Short sample: positions start only in 2006 (less than 30 years), so conclusions should be more cautious.
When it was here before
Earlier hot periods (0), plus the current one
Euro-area stocks after it began, cumulative1 yr2 yr3 yr
Mar 2025–now19-month period, hot in 16 of those monthsStill under way
For each period, the changes 1, 2 and 3 years after it began are cumulative and measured from its first month; “What happened next” is measured from every hot month, so the two give different numbers. The events named beside each period are major events of that time, not necessarily related to the readings here.
What happened nextSample too small to draw conclusions (past hot months: 0; market episodes: 0).
Has hot or cold lined up with later returns?
Some link in the past (not a guide to the future)
2006–2021: average yearly change in Euro-area stocks over the next 5 years
Hottest 20%
+3.6%a year
All months
+3.7%a year
Coldest 20%
+6.6%a year
In this period, the hotter the month, the lower the average over the next 5 years. The months overlap, so there are really only a few market episodes. This is a tendency, not a rule, and not a forecast.
Soaring energy costs squeeze European manufacturers’ profits, especially in energy-intensive industries, most visibly in 2022; but where firms can pass costs on, share prices do not necessarily fall
This issue: Natural gas at 60 (warm), Euro-area stocks at 83 (hot) — both above normal, not in line with the common explanation (this is an inverse link).
●●○Weak or inconsistentAgreement +0.41 · in step in 10 of 16 5-year periods
A stronger euro erodes exporters’ price competitiveness and profits, which weighs on export stocks; but the broad market is driven by other factors too
This issue: EUR/USD at 73 (warm), Euro-area stocks at 83 (hot) — both above normal, not in line with the common explanation (this is an inverse link).
○○○Our data show the oppositeAgreement −0.74 · in step in 0 of 3 5-year periods
Values
Values over time
Unit: index. Data: OECD Main Economic Indicators (share prices).
Data and sources
Where the data come from and how they are calculated
Source
OECD Main Economic Indicators (share prices)
Frequency
Monthly
Positions start
Oct 2006 (short sample)
Method
Ratio: this month ÷ the 10-year average; position = the percentile of this ratio within its own history