Commodities and Agriculture
73warm
47.4% above its 10-year average | Data for Sep 2026
Hot and cold describe position, not good or bad: warm does not mean a fall is coming, and an extreme reading does not mean a quick reversal. We describe history only, with no buy or sell advice.
What it is
A World Bank index that combines the weighted prices of energy, agricultural products, metals and other commodities.
It shows whether commodity prices as a whole are above or below normal. Commodity prices pass through to production costs and consumer prices.
Public substituteWe use this in place of “CRB commodity index”. The CRB is built from futures prices; the World Bank’s overall commodity index is a weighted combination of monthly average commodity prices. Both measure overall moves in commodity prices, but their components, weights and numbers differ. They measure similar things, but they are not the same number.
Where it stands now
coldcoolneutralwarmhotHatched = earlier periods that were also warm
When it was here before
Commodities after it began, cumulative1 yr2 yr3 yr
For each period, the changes 1, 2 and 3 years after it began are cumulative and measured from its first month; “What happened next” is measured from every warm month, so the two give different numbers. The events named beside each period are major events of that time, not necessarily related to the readings here.
What happened next
Bars: median cumulative changeEarlier months with Commodities warm, excluding the current period (112)All months (563)
Median of the deepest drop below the starting month within the next 5 years: −25.3% for months with Commodities warm; −25.2% for all months.
The warm months come from a small number of market episodes (6), and neighboring months are not independent events; rises and falls are all listed. This is the historical record, not a forecast.
| Median position | Back to neutral (40–60) | Still warm or more extreme | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 yr later | 64warm | 25% | 62% |
| 3 yr later | 56neutral | 21% | 46% |
| 5 yr later | 19cold | 8% | 36% |
Has hot or cold lined up with later returns?
1979–2021: average yearly change in Commodities over the next 5 years
There is no clear relationship between hot or cold and what came next. The gaps between the bars are not consistent across months (rank correlation below 0.25); this is a record of the past, not a forecast.
What it is linked to
US dollartoCommoditiesCommon explanation: Cause · opposite direction
Commodities are priced in dollars, so a strong dollar raises their cost for other countries and demand falls; from 2021, though, the two moved together for a time
This issue: US dollar at 45 (neutral), Commodities at 73 (warm) — at least one is in the neutral range (40–60), so we make no call this issue.
Supported by the dataAgreement +0.68 · in step in 7 of 8 5-year periods
Values
Data and sources