Global Pendulum
English

Issue 1 · Late October 2026

Commodities → US inflation

Common explanation (Upstream → downstream · same direction): Higher prices for energy, food and raw materials pass through to consumer prices via fuel, food and production costs.

This issue: Commodities at 73 (warm), US inflation at 64 (warm) — both above normal, in line with the common explanation.

Hot and cold describe position, not good or bad: warm does not mean a fall is coming, and an extreme reading does not mean a quick reversal. We describe history only, with no buy or sell advice.

050100
Hover over a pendulum or tick to see its name; click to open that indicator.Tap a pendulum or tick to see its name; tap again to open that indicator.

Where it stands now

Where the two indicators stand this issue

Commodities: 73 (47.4% above its 10-year average). US inflation: 64 (0.41 percentage points above its 10-year average).

Tests

Does this link hold up?

  1. Common explanationHigher prices for energy, food and raw materials pass through to consumer prices via fuel, food and production costsSource: Federal Reserve Board, “Commodity Prices, the Economic Outlook, and Monetary Policy” (2011). These are the speaker’s own views, about the 2010⁠–⁠2011 episode and based on PCE prices; the speech also judges the pass-through to other goods to be modest and temporary.
  2. Tested against our dataBy position (each compared with its own normal — do their highs and lows move together?): agreement between Commodities and US inflation (3-month lag) is +0.56; across every 5-year period (shifted one year at a time), the two moved in that direction in 39 of 42.By change (how far each position moved over the past 12 months — do their swings move together?): agreement +0.62; the two moved in that direction in all 41, but that does not mean they always will.
    By position39/42
    By change41/41
    Each cell is a five-year period (shifted one year at a time): filled = in step with the common explanation, outlined = out of step.
    Supported by both measures
  3. Periods when it did not holdAcross the 5-year periods (shifted one year at a time, so they overlap), the periods out of step cover — by position (42 periods): 1981⁠–⁠1987 and 2012⁠–⁠2017; by change (41 periods): none.
  4. Does it predict?Prediction test (a historical test, unrelated to “Where it stands now” above and not this site’s forecast): does adding the past 12 months of Commodities make US inflation easier to predict? Result: Top tier (p < 0.001; the smaller, the less likely by chance). Forecasting a recent stretch of data not used for estimation, the error is 16.9% lower.Top tier

History

The two lines, overlaid

Data: World Bank Pink Sheet price indices (CC BY 4.0); US: Bureau of Labor Statistics, via FRED (Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis); Japan: World Bank Global Economic Monitor (CC BY 4.0); others: OECD. Positions: our calculation.

CommoditiesUS inflation

Time lag

At what lag do they match best?

Longer bar = moves more in the direction of the common explanation (the number is the agreement).

Limits

What this card cannot tell you

Back to all links