What it is
US house prices: what is measured, and why it matters
What it measures
The US Federal Housing Finance Agency’s (FHFA) purchase-only house price index (monthly, seasonally adjusted), which measures price changes from repeat sales of the same homes; compared with its own 10-year average.
Why it matters
A home is the largest asset most US households own, and prices often come under pressure when mortgage rates rise. The familiar Case-Shiller index cannot be published here, so this site uses this public index, which measures something close.
Public substituteWe use this in place of “US house prices (Case-Shiller)”. Both are calculated from repeat transactions of the same homes; Case-Shiller covers transactions with any kind of financing, while FHFA covers only those with ordinary mortgages bought or guaranteed by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac (two US government-sponsored mortgage companies), leaving out all-cash purchases and large loans above the lending limit, so it includes fewer high-priced homes. They tend to point the same way, but the numbers differ. They measure similar things, but they are not the same number.
A public alternative to the Case-Shiller index: it measures something close, but it is not the same number.
Where it stands now
Position over time
coldcoolneutralwarmhotHatched = earlier periods that were also neutral
Short sample: positions start only in 2010 (less than 30 years), so conclusions should be more cautious.
When it was here before
Earlier neutral periods (1), plus the current one
US house prices after it began, cumulative1 yr2 yr3 yr
- Dec 2014–Jun 201843-month period, neutral throughout · 2018 February stock sell-off1 yr+5.3%2 yr+11.6%3 yr+18.5%
- Jun 2026–now2-month period, neutral throughoutStill under way
For each period, the changes 1, 2 and 3 years after it began are cumulative and measured from its first month; “What happened next” is measured from every neutral month, so the two give different numbers. The events named beside each period are major events of that time, not necessarily related to the readings here.
What happened nextSample too small to draw conclusions (past neutral months: 43; market episodes: 1).
Has hot or cold lined up with later returns?
Some link in the past (not a guide to the future)
2010–2021: average yearly change in US house prices over the next 5 years
In this period, the hotter the month, the higher the average over the next 5 years. The months overlap, so there are really only a few market episodes. This is a tendency, not a rule, and not a forecast.
What it is linked to
Links involving US house prices
No tested links currently involve this indicator.
Values
Values over time
Data and sources
Where the data come from and how they are calculated
- Source
- US Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA), purchase-only house price index (seasonally adjusted), via FRED (St. Louis Fed); public domain
- Frequency
- Monthly
- Positions start
- Nov 2010 (short sample)
- Method
- Ratio: this month ÷ the 10-year average; position = the percentile of this ratio within its own history
- Unit
- index (Jan 1991 = 100)
- License
- Open license, with attribution