Global Pendulum
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Issue 1 · Late October 2026

Real Estate

House prices, 8 economies: inflation-adjusted house prices in the US, the euro area, the UK, Japan, China, Korea, Australia and Canada (BIS), whose main reading is the median of these 8; US house prices: the US Federal Housing Finance Agency’s house price index; Taiwan house prices: the Ministry of the Interior’s housing price index (which begins only in 2012 and is compared with its average since 2012). Each number compares the indicator only with its own past: the share of past months it is higher than; 50 is normal. For prices and rates, what is compared is how far the reading is from its own long-run average (mostly the 10-year average): 100 means the furthest from that average, not necessarily a record price or rate.

This issue

Combined, the 3 indicators in this category stand at 40 neutral.

No indicator here is at a historical extreme this issue.

Where each stands: Taiwan house prices 80 (hot), US house prices 59 (neutral) and House prices, 8 economies 22 (cool).

Hot and cold describe position, not good or bad: warm does not mean a fall is coming, and an extreme reading does not mean a quick reversal. We describe history only, with no buy or sell advice.

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Where it stands now

Where each indicator stands

The category combined

Combined position over time

Each month we take the median of the indicators’ positions, going back to 2010.

Data: sources are on each indicator’s page. Positions and the median: our calculation.

coldcoolneutralwarmhotHatched = earlier periods that were also neutral

When it was here beforeEarlier neutral periods (1), plus the current one

US stocks after it began, cumulative1 yr2 yr3 yr

  1. Nov 2014⁠–Sep 201959-month period, neutral throughout · 2018 February stock sell-off1 yr+1.8%2 yr+5.9%3 yr+26.9%
  2. May 2026⁠–⁠now3-month period, neutral throughoutStill under way

For each period, the changes 1, 2 and 3 years after it began are cumulative and measured from its first month; “What happened next” is measured from every neutral month, so the two give different numbers. The events named beside each period are major events of that time, not necessarily related to the readings here.

What happened nextHow US stocks moved after earlier months with Real Estate neutral

Sample too small to draw conclusions (past neutral months: 59; market episodes: 1).

“US stocks” means the S&P 500 price index compiled by Professor Shiller (monthly average, excluding dividends).

Has hot or cold lined up with later returns?Some link in the past (not a guide to the future)

2010⁠–⁠2021: average yearly change in US stocks over the next 5 years

Hottest 20%
+13.2%a year
All months
+11.4%a year
Coldest 20%
+11.3%a year

In this period, the hotter the month, the higher the average over the next 5 years. The months overlap, so there are really only a few market episodes. This is a tendency, not a rule, and not a forecast.

What it is linked to

Links involving Real Estate

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