Issue 1 · Late October 2026
US payrolls, unemployment and wages. Each number compares the indicator only with its own past: the share of past months it is higher than; 50 is normal. For prices and rates, what is compared is how far the reading is from its own 10-year average: 100 means the furthest from that average, not necessarily a record price or rate.
This issue
No indicator here is at a historical extreme this issue.
Where each stands: Unemployment 44 (neutral), Nonfarm payrolls 28 (cool) and Wages 22 (cool).
Hot and cold describe position, not good or bad: warm does not mean a fall is coming, and an extreme reading does not mean a quick reversal. We describe history only, with no buy or sell advice.
Where it stands now
Not combined
These are not combined into one number because “high” means opposite things: high unemployment means jobs are hard to find, while high payrolls and wages mean jobs are easier to find and pay more. So each indicator gets its own chart.
What it is linked to
Nonfarm payrollstoUnemploymentCommon explanation: Knock-on · opposite direction
When job growth slows, the unemployment rate rises
This issue: Nonfarm payrolls at 28 (cool), Unemployment at 44 (neutral) — at least one is in the neutral range (40–60), so we make no call this issue.
Supported by the dataAgreement +0.50 · in step in 49 of 54 5-year periods
UnemploymenttoFed funds rateCommon explanation: Cause · opposite direction
When unemployment rises, the central bank cuts rates to support jobs (its dual mandate)
This issue: Unemployment at 44 (neutral), Fed funds rate at 72 (warm) — at least one is in the neutral range (40–60), so we make no call this issue.
Weak or inconsistentAgreement +0.30 · in step in 43 of 48 5-year periods
WagestoCore inflationCommon explanation: Knock-on · same direction
Services rely mostly on labor, so wages push up service prices
This issue: Wages at 22 (cool), Core inflation at 35 (cool) — both below normal, in line with the common explanation.
Weak or inconsistentAgreement +0.46 · in step in 22 of 37 5-year periods