Global Pendulum
English

Issue 1 · Late October 2026

Precious Metals

Gold and silver. Each number compares the indicator only with its own past: the share of past months it is higher than; 50 is normal. For prices and rates, what is compared is how far the reading is from its own 10-year average: 100 means the furthest from that average, not necessarily a record price or rate.

This issue

Combined, the 2 indicators in this category stand at 88 hot.

  • Silver93hotrelative to its 10-year average, higher than 92% of past months; last this high in Nov 2011

The others: Gold 84 (hot).

Hot and cold describe position, not good or bad: warm does not mean a fall is coming, and an extreme reading does not mean a quick reversal. We describe history only, with no buy or sell advice.

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Hover over a pendulum or tick to see its name; click to open that indicator.Tap a pendulum or tick to see its name; tap again to open that indicator.

Where it stands now

Where each indicator stands

The category combined

Combined position over time

Each month we take the median of the indicators’ positions, going back to 1979.

Data: sources are on each indicator’s page. Positions and the median: our calculation.

coldcoolneutralwarmhotHatched = earlier periods that were also hot

When it was here beforeEarlier hot periods (2), plus the current one

US stocks after it began, cumulative1 yr2 yr3 yr

  1. Nov 1979⁠–Dec 198014-month period, hot throughout · 1980 Oil crisis1 yr+30.9%2 yr+18.5%3 yr+33.2%
  2. Mar 2006⁠–Nov 201281-month period, hot in 69 of those months · 2008 Financial crisis, 2009 Market bottom and 2011 Euro debt crisis1 yr+8.8%2 yr+1.8%3 yr−41.5%
  3. Jun 2025⁠–⁠now16-month period, hot throughoutStill under way

For each period, the changes 1, 2 and 3 years after it began are cumulative and measured from its first month; “What happened next” is measured from every hot month, so the two give different numbers. The events named beside each period are major events of that time, not necessarily related to the readings here.

What happened nextHow US stocks moved after earlier months with Precious Metals hot

Sample too small to draw conclusions (past hot months: 83; market episodes: 2).

“US stocks” means the S&P 500 price index compiled by Professor Shiller (monthly average, excluding dividends).

Has hot or cold lined up with later returns?No clear link in the past

1979⁠–⁠2021: average yearly change in US stocks over the next 5 years

Hottest 20%
+7.9%a year
All months
+9.3%a year
Coldest 20%
+12.5%a year

There is no clear relationship between hot or cold and what came next. The gaps between the bars are not consistent across months (rank correlation below 0.25); this is a record of the past, not a forecast.

What it is linked to

Links involving Precious Metals

Financial stresstoGoldCommon explanation: Ripple · same direction

In a panic, safe-haven demand flows into gold

This issue: Financial stress at 12 (cold), Gold at 84 (hot) — Financial stress below normal, Gold above normal, not in line with the common explanation.

Weak or inconsistentAgreement +0.25 · in step in 17 of 32 5-year periods

Real ratetoGoldCommon explanation: Cause · opposite direction

Gold pays no interest, so the higher the real rate, the higher the opportunity cost of holding gold

This issue: Real rate at 100 (hot), Gold at 84 (hot) — both above normal, not in line with the common explanation (this is an inverse link).

Our data show the oppositeAgreement −0.44 · in step in 7 of 9 5-year periods

In most periods the two moved the way the common explanation says, but over the whole history the direction is the opposite: the relationship may have flipped in some eras.

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