Global anchor · Assets · Precious Metals
84hot
108% above its 10-year average | Data for Sep 2026
Hot and cold describe position, not good or bad: warm does not mean a fall is coming, and an extreme reading does not mean a quick reversal. We describe history only, with no buy or sell advice.
What it is
The monthly average price, in US dollars per troy ounce.
A traditional safe-haven asset, most sensitive to real interest rates and the dollar; in market panics it is often treated as a refuge.
Since June 2025, the monthly figure is the average of daily spot prices.
Where it stands now
coldcoolneutralwarmhotHatched = earlier periods that were also hot
When it was here before
Gold after it began, cumulative1 yr2 yr3 yr
For each period, the changes 1, 2 and 3 years after it began are cumulative and measured from its first month; “What happened next” is measured from every hot month, so the two give different numbers. The events named beside each period are major events of that time, not necessarily related to the readings here.
What happened nextSample too small to draw conclusions (past hot months: 71; market episodes: 2).
Has hot or cold lined up with later returns?
1979–2021: average yearly change in Gold over the next 5 years
There is no clear relationship between hot or cold and what came next. The gaps between the bars are not consistent across months (rank correlation below 0.25); this is a record of the past, not a forecast.
What it is linked to
Financial stresstoGoldCommon explanation: Ripple · same direction
In a panic, safe-haven demand flows into gold
This issue: Financial stress at 12 (cold), Gold at 84 (hot) — Financial stress below normal, Gold above normal, not in line with the common explanation.
Weak or inconsistentAgreement +0.25 · in step in 17 of 32 5-year periods
Real ratetoGoldCommon explanation: Cause · opposite direction
Gold pays no interest, so the higher the real rate, the higher the opportunity cost of holding gold
This issue: Real rate at 100 (hot), Gold at 84 (hot) — both above normal, not in line with the common explanation (this is an inverse link).
Our data show the oppositeAgreement −0.44 · in step in 7 of 9 5-year periods
In most periods the two moved the way the common explanation says, but over the whole history the direction is the opposite: the relationship may have flipped in some eras.
Gold and US dollar are often linked: they often move in opposite directions because both respond to real interest rates; neither directly causes the other. They share a common source, so we do not draw a link between them.
Values
Data and sources