Trade and Shipping
91hotat an extreme
Now 1.28 standard deviations | Data for Sep 2026
Hot and cold describe position, not good or bad: warm does not mean a fall is coming, and an extreme reading does not mean a quick reversal. We describe history only, with no buy or sell advice.
What it is
An index compiled by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York from shipping costs, delivery times, order backlogs and other data. Zero is average.
When supply chains clog and freight costs rise, goods cost more; this is often an early sign of inflation.
Public substituteWe use this in place of “Baltic Dry Index (BDI)”. The BDI measures only freight rates for bulk ships carrying raw materials such as coal, iron ore and grain; the New York Fed’s Global Supply Chain Pressure Index combines the BDI, container ship charter rates, air freight costs and manufacturing surveys from many countries into one number. The BDI is one of its inputs, and the two often point the same way, but the numbers differ. They measure similar things, but they are not the same number.
Public substituteWe use this in place of “Container freight rates (SCFI, WCI)”. Container freight indices measure freight rates on individual container routes; the Global Supply Chain Pressure Index uses container ship charter rates and combines them with other shipping costs and manufacturing surveys into one number. Both reflect how tight shipping is, but their scope and numbers differ. They measure similar things, but they are not the same number.
0 = average; higher = tighter supply chains. The whole series is saved each month (past values may be revised).
Where it stands now
coldcoolneutralwarmhotHatched = earlier periods that were also hot
Short sample: positions start only in 2007 (less than 30 years), so conclusions should be more cautious.
When it was here before
US stocks after it began, cumulative1 yr2 yr3 yr
For each period, the changes 1, 2 and 3 years after it began are cumulative and measured from its first month; “What happened next” is measured from every hot month, so the two give different numbers. The events named beside each period are major events of that time, not necessarily related to the readings here.
What happened nextSample too small to draw conclusions (past hot months: 90; market episodes: 2).
Has hot or cold lined up with later returns?
2007–2021: average yearly change in US stocks over the next 5 years
There is no clear relationship between hot or cold and what came next. The gaps between the bars are not consistent across months (rank correlation below 0.25); this is a record of the past, not a forecast.
What it is linked to
Supply pressuretoUS inflationCommon explanation: Knock-on · same direction
Clogged supply chains and higher freight costs make goods cost more
This issue: Supply pressure at 91 (hot), US inflation at 64 (warm) — both above normal, in line with the common explanation.
Supported by the dataAgreement +0.45 · in step in 14 of 14 5-year periods
Values
Data and sources