Issue 1 · Late October 2026
World trade volume, Taiwan’s export orders and global supply chain pressure. Each number compares the indicator only with its own past: the share of past months it is higher than; 50 is normal. For prices and rates, what is compared is how far the reading is from its own 10-year average: 100 means the furthest from that average, not necessarily a record price or rate.
This issue
The others: World trade 89 (hot).
Hot and cold describe position, not good or bad: warm does not mean a fall is coming, and an extreme reading does not mean a quick reversal. We describe history only, with no buy or sell advice.
Where it stands now
Not combined
These are not combined into one number because “high” means different things: high supply chain pressure means shipping is jammed and deliveries slow down, while high export orders mean buyers abroad are ordering more. So each indicator gets its own chart.
What it is linked to
Supply pressuretoUS inflationCommon explanation: Knock-on · same direction
Clogged supply chains and higher freight costs make goods cost more
This issue: Supply pressure at 91 (hot), US inflation at 64 (warm) — both above normal, in line with the common explanation.
Supported by the dataAgreement +0.45 · in step in 14 of 14 5-year periods
Taiwan export orderstoTaiwan stocksCommon explanation: Knock-on · same direction
Export orders and share prices are both leading indicators, turning before the economy does
This issue: Taiwan export orders at 99 (hot), Taiwan stocks at 99 (hot) — both above normal, in line with the common explanation.
Supported by the dataAgreement +0.59 · in step in 15 of 15 5-year periods
Taiwan export orderstoTaiwan cycle signalCommon explanation: Knock-on · same direction
Export orders lead exports and production, and the business cycle signal follows
This issue: Taiwan export orders at 99 (hot), Taiwan cycle signal at 99 (hot) — both above normal, in line with the common explanation.
Supported by the dataAgreement +0.65 · in step in 17 of 17 5-year periods