Highlights of issue 1

This issue’s highlights

Highlights of this issue

1. OverallThe median of the 17 global anchors stands at 72 (warm). The reading has been warm in 55 of the 69 months since Feb 2021, the rest neutral. Earlier periods when the overall reading was also warm: 1979⁠–⁠1981, 1987, 1999⁠–⁠2001, 2006⁠–⁠2008, 2009⁠–⁠2012 and 2017⁠–⁠2018 (6 in all).
2. At the extremesGlobal anchors at their own historical extremes (5): US valuation (99), US stocks (94), US 10-⁠yr yield (91) and Copper (91) at the high end; Credit spread (9) at the low end. For most indicators an extreme is uncommon, and not necessarily bad.
3. HistoryIn the year after each of the 6 earlier warm periods began, US stocks changed by between −10.2% and +16.5%, and over three years, cumulatively, by between −34.6% and +36.8%. Of the months when the overall reading was warm, 38% were still at least warm a year later. This is the historical record, not a forecast.

Global anchors

Where the 17 global anchors stood in this issue

• Economy: combined 68 (warm)
• Assets: combined 84 (hot)

Indicator | Percentile | Level | Data month

This issue’s figures reflect the data when it was published; later revisions or redesigns do not change the archive.